Will UC Berkeley Basketball Return to NCAA Tournament Glory This Season?

As a long-time observer of college basketball and someone who’s followed the Pac-12’s ebbs and flows for over a decade, I find myself asking a question this preseason that feels both nostalgic and urgent: Will UC Berkeley basketball return to NCAA Tournament glory this season? It’s not just a fan’s hopeful wondering; it feels like a legitimate point of discussion for the first time in what seems like forever. The Bears have been wandering in the wilderness, missing the Big Dance for eight consecutive seasons since their last appearance in 2016. That’s a long, dry spell for a program with the history and resources of Cal. But this year, there’s a different buzz around Haas Pavilion, a tangible sense that the pieces might finally be aligning. It reminds me of a dynamic I recently came across in another rebuilding context, where a coach’s full faith in a leader can ignite a team’s belief. I read about a situation where, with his coach’s complete trust, a player expressed confidence about leading his team in what was supposed to be a rebuild that nonetheless had the potential to turn into a return to the Final Four. That exact sentiment—the alchemy of trust, leadership, and latent potential—is what I believe is brewing in Berkeley right now under Mark Madsen.

Let’s be real, the past few years have been tough. The win-loss records speak for themselves: a 3-29 season in 2022-23 was a historic low. But last season, Madsen’s first, showed the green shoots of recovery. They improved to 13-19, and more importantly, they competed. They beat Washington State and Colorado, teams that danced in March. The foundation, however shaky it looked a few years ago, is being poured with sturdier material now. The transformation truly hinges on two massive factors: the development of their young core and the impact of a stellar transfer portal class. Jaylon Tyson, the 6’7” wing from Texas Tech, is the headline act. He averaged nearly 20 points and 6 rebounds in the Big 12 last season, and he’s precisely the kind of versatile, scoring wing that defines modern college basketball. Pair him with a healthy Jalen Celestine, whose shooting can be electric, and the returning post presence of Fardaws Aimaq, and you have a trio that can stack up against most in the conference. I’ve always been a believer that a successful rebuild needs a cornerstone transfer—a player who changes the culture simply by his presence and production. Tyson feels like that guy for Cal.

But talent alone doesn’t guarantee a tournament bid. This is where Madsen’s role and that intangible element of belief become critical. Watching him on the sidelines, you see a coach whose energy is infectious. He’s a program builder, not just a tactician. He’s instilling a defensive identity and an offensive freedom that empowers his players. I see parallels to what that other coach did by placing his full faith in a leader; Madsen is doing that with this entire group. He’s betting on Tyson to be the alpha, on Aimaq to anchor the paint, and on guards like Keonte Kennedy to provide veteran savvy. When a coach radiates that kind of unwavering confidence, it permeates the locker room. Players start to believe in the vision before it’s fully realized on the court. They stop playing not to lose and start playing to make a statement. That mental shift is everything for a team learning how to win again. I’ve seen it happen before—a team flips from hoping for an upset to expecting a victory. That’s the threshold Cal is approaching.

Now, the path to the NCAA Tournament is brutally clear and equally difficult. The Pac-12, in its final season of existence, is top-heavy but deep. Arizona is a preseason top-5 team nationally. UCLA, despite roster turnover, is always formidable. USC has Bronny James and immense talent. To finish in the top four of this league, which is likely what’s needed for an at-large bid, Cal probably needs to win around 22 or 23 games overall and go something like 12-8 in conference play. It’s a tall order, but not an impossible one. Their non-conference schedule is manageable, with games against teams like UTEP, Santa Clara, and a big one against Ole Miss. They need to bank wins there. Then, in Pac-12 play, they must protect their home court—Haas needs to become a fortress again—and steal a few on the road. I’m particularly looking at their early January stretch. If they can navigate that with a winning record, the belief will solidify into expectation.

So, will they return to glory this season? My heart says they have a real shot, and my analyst’s eye agrees, albeit with cautious optimism. I don’t think they’re a Final Four team—that reference from the knowledge base is an aspirational extreme for Cal’s current timeline. But a return to the NCAA Tournament? Absolutely within reach. This feels like a classic "Year Two Leap" scenario under a motivated coach with a roster finally built in his image. The combination of high-end transfer talent, key returnees, and, most importantly, a palpable and growing belief within the program is a powerful formula. They have the pieces to be a tough out every single night. The margin for error is slim, and health is always a variable, but the trajectory is pointed sharply upward. For the first time in nearly a decade, it’s not foolish to pencil in Cal for bubble discussions come February. And in the world of college basketball, where momentum and confidence are currencies as valuable as a five-star recruit, that alone is a monumental step back toward the light. I, for one, am excited to watch the journey. The glory might not mean cutting down nets in April, but for Berkeley basketball, simply hearing their name called on Selection Sunday would be a glorious return indeed.