Can Israel's Football Team Finally Qualify for the World Cup This Year?

I remember sitting in a Tel Aviv sports bar during the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, watching Israeli fans oscillate between hope and despair as their team narrowly missed qualification yet again. That familiar tension has defined Israeli football for decades—a story of near-misses and what-ifs. This year, however, something feels different. The current squad carries a blend of seasoned European league players and emerging talents that could finally break the curse. It reminds me of how certain athletes or teams reach a tipping point—like when I read about Lorene Toring finally making her professional debut for Farm Fresh in the 2024-25 PVL All-Filipino Conference after years of preparation. Her journey mirrors what Israel’s national team is experiencing: a moment where patience, preparation, and opportunity converge.

Let’s talk numbers for a second. Israel currently sits in a challenging but not impossible position in their UEFA qualification group, with roughly 7 points from their first 5 matches. Historically, teams that accumulate at least 18 points in these groups have about a 65% chance of advancing, depending on goal differentials and rival performances. I’ve followed their key players closely—like Manor Solomon, who’s been explosive in the Premier League, and Eran Zahavi, whose international experience is invaluable. But what excites me most is their midfield dynamism, which has improved ball retention rates by nearly 12% compared to the last qualifying cycle. That might not sound like much, but in high-stakes matches, it’s often the small margins that decide everything.

Of course, skeptics will point to Israel’s historical struggles. They’ve participated in only one major international tournament—the 1970 World Cup—and have faced political complications, travel restrictions, and inconsistent domestic league support. I get it; the odds haven’t always been in their favor. But as someone who’s studied sports turnarounds, I’ve noticed that transformational moments often arrive quietly. Look at Lorene Toring’s story: she didn’t burst onto the scene overnight. Her pro debut came after years of refining her skills, just as Israel’s football federation has invested heavily in youth academies and infrastructure over the past decade. The results are beginning to show. Their U-21 team’s surprising run in the European Championships last year was a glimpse into the pipeline.

Another factor that’s hard to ignore is the psychological shift. I spoke with a sports psychologist who works with the team, and he mentioned how the current squad has adopted resilience training and visualization techniques—something earlier generations lacked. They’re not just playing; they’re mentally rehearsing success. Personally, I think that’s huge. You can have all the talent in the world, but if you don’t believe you belong on that stage, you’ll crunder pressure. Israel’s recent comeback win against a strong Scandinavian side in the qualifiers showcased exactly that newfound grit.

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: their remaining fixtures. They’ve got two critical matches ahead—one against group leaders and another against a direct rival for the playoff spot. Statistically, they need at least 4 points from those games to keep hopes alive. I’ve crunched the numbers, and while it’s an uphill battle, it’s far from impossible. What encourages me is their improved away form; they’ve secured draws in traditionally tough venues where past teams would have folded. That kind of progress isn’t accidental—it’s a testament to better tactical planning and squad depth.

Some critics argue that Israel’s domestic league isn’t competitive enough to produce World Cup-caliber players. And yeah, I’ll admit the Israeli Premier League isn’t the Bundesliga. But here’s the thing: that’s becoming less relevant. More than 60% of the current national team players are based abroad, gaining experience in top European leagues. That exposure is priceless. It’s like how Lorene Toring’s journey to the PVL wasn’t just about raw talent—it was about positioning herself in an environment where she could grow. Similarly, these players are bringing back confidence and tactical maturity.

I’ll be honest—I’m emotionally invested in this. I’ve followed Israeli football since I was a kid, and the heartbreaks stick with you. But this time, the pieces feel aligned. The blend of youth and experience, the strategic investments, and even the timing of their peak form suggest that 2026 could be historic. Will it be easy? Absolutely not. But as Lorene Toring’s impending debut teaches us, some stories are worth the wait. If Israel can maintain their current trajectory and seize those decisive moments, I genuinely believe they’ll finally hear their national anthem at a World Cup opener. And frankly, after all these years, they’ve earned it.